Golden Globes 2009 - Who Will Win, Who Should Win, And Who Got Snubbed
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Should win: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Why: The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) can't resist the whimsical, weepy romance; plus, its sheer star power ups its chances, and apparently it's a pretty good film to boot. It's the most well-rounded and ambitious of the nominees.
Possible upset: Slumdog Millionaire
Why: The other three serious, quiet, slower-paced nominees cancel each other out, and Slumdog's buzz is pretty powerful. The HFPA loves an underdog.
Snubbed: The Dark Knight
Why: Easily one of the top five films of the year, and not just because of its box office take. The HFPA is usually better at looking beyond the comic book genre and judging a film on its merits, but this time they failed. Highly disappointing.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Why: The HFPA is famous for rewarding young ingénues in gritty breakout roles (see: Natalie Portman in Closer).
Should win: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Why: It's a downright crime that this leading lady doesn't have either a Globe or an Oscar (and that actresses like Gwyneth Paltrow do). Someone hand the girl an award already!
Possible upset: Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Why: The HFPA might be looking to make up for last year's loss for A Mighty Heart.
Snubbed: Keira Knightley - The Duchess
Why: Knightley's fragile, heartwrenching, excellent performance finally proved to the world once and for all that she can really, truly act.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: Sean Penn - Milk
Should win: Sean Penn - Milk
Why: Far and away the best leading male performance of the year. Plus, it's Sean Penn. If he's nominated he should pretty much win by default.
Possible upset: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Why: Underdog PLUS personal comeback story? That's got Globes upset win written all over it.
Best Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Why: In a downright odd pool of nominees, this delightful and euro-centric (remember, it's the HFPA) little nugget is the most likely lock--although this is definitely the most unpredictable category, as none of the nominees is a true front runner.
Should win: In Bruges
Why: It's hilarious, tightly plotted, and probably the best film of the nominees, but its violence factor and release date in early 2008 work against its chances.
Possible upset: Burn After Reading
Why: Everyone's still riding the Coen Bros train, and even though this outing wasn't their smoothest, Burn is funny, quirky, and star-studded enough to pull an upset.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should win: Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Why: Breakout performance! Ingénue! Also, it's actually the best performance of the nominees.
Possible upset: Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Why:Meryl Streep, like Sean Penn, is pretty much a default vote. The HFPA loves a good musical, and her slightly ditzy, energetic, emotional performance stands up well against the other nominees.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Why: HFPA members have been known to vote a straight ticket, leading VCB to sweep the comedy categories.
Should win: James Franco - The Pineapple Express
Why: Up there with Sean Penn and Heath Ledger as one of the best male performances of the year, and a real awakening of the talent behind James Franco, whose previous turns in Spiderman didn't really recommend him to audiences. However, the stoner-gangster-comedy subgenre of the film works against him.
Possible upset: Colin Farrell - In Bruges
Why: A solid performance, a great movie, and a vastly underrated actor.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Will win: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should win: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Why: Cruz was excellent in VCB, and she hasn't been given a big award yet by Hollywood. It's long past due.
Possible upset: Viola Davis - Doubt
Why: Dramatic turns usually trump comedic ones, and Davis' buzz for her small but powerful role might push her through for a win.
Snubbed: If Emmy Rossum can nab a Globe nomination for her lackluster, dead-eyed turn in The Phantom of the Opera, then Amanda Seyfried should have been rewarded for her sweet, bright breakout performance in Mamma Mia. This is a tough and already crowded category, though, so we won't hold it against the HFPA.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Will win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Should win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Why: There's just no question about this being the best performance of the year.
Possible upset: Robert Downey Jr.
- Tropic Thunder
Why: RDJ is a great talent, a comeback story, and gave a brilliant camp performance that might just sway enough of the HFPA. But with Ledger in the mix, don't bet on it.
Best Television Series - Drama
Should win: Mad Men (AMC)
Will win: Mad Men (AMC)
Why: Best show on television, period. The HFPA loves costume dramas.
Possible upset: Dexter (SHOWTIME)
Snubbed: The other best show on television is, of course, Battlestar Galactica, but as usual, no one can see past their sci-fi prejudice to reward its excellence. The fact that mediocre shows like House and True Blood are nominated in Battlestar's stead is a frakkin' travesty.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series - Drama
Will win: Sally Field - Brothers And Sisters (ABC)
Should win: January Jones - Mad Men (AMC)
Why: Jones' transformation from perfect Grace Kelly housewife to a broken-down doll whose world teeters on the edge of collapse deserves every award possible.
Possible upset: Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer TV series (TNT)
Snubbed: Lisa Edelstein, who seriously ratcheted up her game this season as Dr. Cuddy on House, and is consistently excellent as the Irene Adler to House's Sherlock Holmes. It's high time she got a nomination, at the very least. Also, Mary McDonnell of Battlestar Galactica gave hands-down the best performance of the year as President Laura Roslin.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series - Drama
Will win: Michael C. Hall - Dexter (SHOWTIME)
Should win: Jon Hamm - Mad Men (AMC)
Why: What a man. What a role. Don Draper is the height of tortured cool, and it's all due to Hamm's careful, steel-band-ready-to-snap performance.
Possible upset: Hugh Laurie - House (FOX)
Why: Although the HFPA doesn't often repeat awards, Laurie carries his entire show on his shoulders and looks damn good doing it.
Best Television Series - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: 30 Rock (NBC)
Should win: 30 Rock (NBC)
Why: It's like watching an abstract painting reenacted in Vaudeville. It's brilliant, and consistently the second-funniest show on television, right behind that which was Snubbed.
Possible upset: Californication
Why: The sex sells it, and its leading man won last year.
Snubbed: It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, which is easily the funniest and most creative show since Arrested Development.
You've got to be kidding me: Entourage (HBO)
Why: You've got to be freaking kidding me. This terrible, unfunny show needs to die. Now.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: Tina Fey - 30 Rock (NBC)
Should win: Tina Fey - 30 Rock (NBC)
Why: It's The Year of Tina Fey, after all. And she genuinely deserves it.
Possible upset: Christina Applegate - Samantha Who? (ABC)
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock (NBC)
Should win: Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock (NBC)
Why: Baldwin has singlehandedly created one of the funniest and most memorable TV characters of all time. Week after week, he's the most entertaining thing on TV.
Possible upset: Tony Shalhoub - Monk (USA)
Why: Shaloub's great, and an old favorite to win this category.
Make your own predictions and check out the winners live on NBC Sunday, January 11 (8 - 11 p.m. EST).
Story by Meghan McCracken
Starpulse contributing writer
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