Weekend Box Office Predictions: 'Thor: The Dark World' Obviously Will Take No. 1
1) Thor: The Dark World- 75M Weekend, 75M Total
It’s almost an unprecedented move. A summer blockbuster is opening in November. The good news is that the Top 10 films of November (All Time) are almost entirely franchise films. However, most of those are Harry Potter or Twilight films. There really isn’t a superhero sequel in November, ever. That being said, five films have managed to gross over 100M on their opening November weekends. Thor has already been doing some great overseas business, and managed some good reviews. The original opened to 65M, and it’s safe to say the sequel will beat that. With very little competition, Thor should walk away with 75M this weekend.
2) Enders Game- 14M Weekend, 46M Total
Enders Game got mixed reviews, and will face direct competition from Thor. A dip of about 50% will result in around 14M for the weekend.
3) 12 Years A Slave- 12M Weekend, 21M Total
12 Years A Slave is expanding “nationwide”, and without an official screen count, I realize my prediction is bold. However, this film managed to rank 7th place last week in only 410 screens. So, given a potential 2,000 screens, I think 12M is not being unreasonable.
4) Bad Grandpa- 12M Weekend, 76M Total
Bad Grandpa held on a lot better than I thought it would last week. Another solid hold could actually put it in striking distance of 100M. Will the Johnny Knoxville comedy join the century club?
5) Last Vegas- 10M Weekend, 30M Total
Audience seemed to enjoy Last Vegas more than critics. A 40% dip to about 10M will keep Last Vegas in the Top 5 (unless Free Birds overperforms).
6) Free Birds- 9M Weekend, 27M Total
Free Birds is virtually the only family film in the marketplace. Even though it was a disappointment, it won’t see huge week-to-week drops. A dip of about 40% will give it another 9M.
7) Gravity- 9M Weekend, 230M Total
The film that keeps on giving. Gravity dropped less than 40% last week, and a similar drop will result in about 9M.
8) About Time- 5.5M Weekend, 7M Total
About Time did not start the box office on fire last week in a fairly limited release. With only 175 screens, it managed 6,150 per screen average. It goes wide this weekend, but I don’t think it’ll matter much. Consumer interest seems to be really low for this.
9) Captain Phillips- 5M Weekend, 89M Total
Captain Phillips is closing in on the 100M mark. It should slide across as continued Oscar buzz will keep it in theatres off and on for the next two months.
10) Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2- 2.5M Weekend, 109M Total
The animated sequel will hold on to a Top 10 slot for one more week.
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