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Awards Watch #4- Monuments Men flees the race, Wolf re-enters

Mac The Movieguy Mac The Movieguy
November 7th, 2013 3:42pm EST

Best Picture

1) 12 Years A Slave

2) Gravity

3) American Hustle

4) Captain Phillips

5) Saving Mr Banks

6) Inside Llewyn Davis

7) The Butler

8) The Wolf Of Wall Street (Debut)

9) Nebraska

10) August Osage County

11) Fruitvale Station

12) Her

13) Blue Jasmine

14) All Is Lost

15) Dallas Buyers Club

Monuments Men has dropped out of the race, moving to February. Wolf Of Wall Street is now targeted for Christmas Day. Previously, WOWS was targeted as a “drop out” because the studio was concerned with the run time, and everyone believed Scorsese was too busy to finish it in time to be released this year. Looks like Scorsese ramped it up and got it done. The Gotham Awards are not a strong indicator of anything, except to keep fueling certain films forward (and signaling that others may be cooling down).

Best Actor:

1) Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years A Slave

2) Robert Redford- All Is Lost

3) Matthew McConaughey- Dallas Buyers Club

4) Tom Hanks- Captain Phillips

5) Bruce Dern- Nebraska

6) Forest Whitaker- The Butler

7) Joaquin Phoenix- Her

8) Oscar Issac- Inside Llewyn Davis

9) Leonardo DiCaprio- Wolf Of Wall Street (Debut)

10) Michael B. Jordan- Fruitvale Station

With Wolf Of Wall Street back in, I had to figure out who to drop out. I’m concerned that Christian Bale has two movies that he looks to be good in, and the lead in, and he might suffer from competing against himself (much the same way Nicole Kidman did in 2001 with Moulin Rouge and The Others). This is an incredibly tight race. If I was a gambling man, I’d say Ejiofor, Redford, and McConaughey are locks, which is incredible this early in the game.

Best Actress

1) Sandra Bullock- Gravity

2) Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine

3) Emma Thompson- Saving Mr Banks

4) Judi Dench- Philomena

5) Meryl Streep- August Osage County

6) Amy Adams- American Hustle

7) Brie Larson- Short Term 12

8) Adele Exarchopoulos- Blue Is The Warmest Color

9) Kate Winslet- Labor Day

10) Julia Louis-Dreyfus- Enough Said (Debut)

Brie Larson is managing to stay on the radar. Her film is so small, if she managed an Oscar nomination it would be a huge triumph. Can she manage to get a spot? I think Bullock and Blanchett are locks.

Best Supporting Actor

1) Jared Leto- Dallas Buyers Club

2) Michael Fassbender- 12 Years A Slave

3) Tom Hanks- Saving Mr Banks

4) Barkhad Abdi- Captain Phillips

5) James Gandolfini- Enough Said

6) Daniel Bruhl- Rush

7) John Goodman- Inside Llewyn Davis

8) David Oyelowo- The Butler (Debut)

9) Matthew McConaughey- Mud

10) Jonah Hill- The Wolf of Wall Street (Debut)

I’ve been ignoring David Oyelowo’s presence in the race, thinking it would die down, but he seems to be surviving while others drop out. I’ve seen Jonah Hill getting some attention for Wolf Of Wall Street. I doubt he gets his second nomination though.

Best Supporting Actress

1) Lupita N’Yongo- 12 Years A Slave

2) Oprah Winfrey- The Butler

3) Julia Roberts- August Osage County

4) Octavia Spencer- Fruitvale Station

5) June Squibb- Nebraska

6) Jennifer Lawrence- American Hustle

7) Sally Hawkins- Blue Jasmine

8) Margo Martindale- August: Osage County

9) Scarlett Johansson- Her

10) Carey Mulligan- Inside Llewyn Davis (Debut)

There doesn’t seem to be much movement here. Lupita and Oprah are basically locks at this point. June Squibb is getting more recognition for her work in Nebraska. Melissa Leo drops off as Prisoners seems DOA.

Best Director:

1) Alfonso Cuaron- Gravity

2) Steve McQueen- 12 Years A Slave

3) David O’Russell- American Hustle

4) Paul Greengrass- Captain Phillips

5) The Coen Brothers- Inside Llewyn Davis

6) Alexander Payne- Nebraska

7) Spike Jonze- Her

8) JC Chandor- All Is Lost

9) Woody Allen- Blue Jasmine

10) Martin Scorsese- The Wolf Of Wall Street

I had to debut Martin Scorsese here for The Wolf Of Wall Street, so Lee Daniels dropped off.

Best Animated Feature:

1) The Wind Rises

2) Frozen

3) Monsters University

4) The Croods

5) Despicable Me 2