This year's Oscars promises to be full of drama and surprises as there are only a handful of sure locks to win awards.

The biggest question of all is which film will take home the award for Best Picture, with Ben Affleck's Iran Hostage drama Argo and Steven Spielberg's presidential biopic Lincoln leading the pack.

While Lincoln looked to be a sure bet early on, it wasn't until the Golden Globes that Argo began gaining all of the momentum; scooping up numerous awards, including Producers and Directors Guild Awards.

But that still doesn't mean it'll win Oscar gold. The Producers Guild has only been handing out awards since 1990 and only has a 73% rate of success in signaling which film will win Best Picture at the oscars (16 of the 22 films that won Oscar also won the PGA Award).

Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow, Django Unchained director Quentin Tarantino and Les Mis helmer Tom Hooper were also left out of the directing category; which, historically would put Spielberg, Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) all ahead of those four films in the hunt for Best Picture.

But we're sticking with conventional wisdom here, though, and leaning toward Lincoln, mainly because nine times out of 10 Best Picture and Best Director go hand-in-hand.

The odds are relatively even in this case; however, Hollywood does tend to love a musical, so don't count out Les Miserables. A win for Hooper's epic wouldn't surprise us in the least; and neither would Beasts.

Stranger things have happened, though. For now, we suggest that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences expand the Best Director category to equal the number of Best Picture nominees. Just to make things a little more interesting.

After all, a film is only as good as its director.

The Nominees: Best Motion Picture Of The Year

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Our pick to win: Lincoln
What should win: Lincoln
What will probably win: Argo